The Course
Six modules take you from first principles to advanced concepts. Work through them in order, or jump to what you need.
Module 1
Foundations
- Lesson 1: What Are Prediction Markets? Prediction markets let people trade on the outcome of future events — and the price becomes a forecast.
- Lesson 2: A Brief History of Forecasting Markets From election betting to modern exchanges: how prediction markets evolved.
- Lesson 3: Probabilities, Odds, and Prices How a market price maps to an implied probability, and how to read between the two.
- Lesson 4: Why Markets Can Predict The wisdom-of-crowds mechanism that lets prices aggregate dispersed information.
Module 2
How Markets Work
- Lesson 1: Order Books vs. Automated Market Makers The two dominant market structures in prediction markets, and how each sets prices.
- Lesson 2: Shares, Contracts, and Settlement What you actually own when you take a position, and how it pays out.
- Lesson 3: Liquidity and the Spread Why liquidity matters, what the bid-ask spread costs you, and how to gauge depth.
- Lesson 4: Resolution and Oracles How markets decide the true outcome and pay winners — and where it can go wrong.
Module 3
The Main Platforms
- Lesson 1: Polymarket A tour of Polymarket: its AMM-and-order-book model, on-chain settlement, and market types.
- Lesson 2: Kalshi Kalshi as a regulated US exchange: how it differs from crypto-native venues.
- Lesson 3: Other Venues and Exchanges A survey of the wider landscape of prediction-market platforms.
- Lesson 4: Choosing a Platform Fees, liquidity, jurisdiction, and trust: how to pick where to trade.
Module 4
Reading Markets
- Lesson 1: Interpreting Market Prices Turning a price into a probability — and knowing what the number does and does not say.
- Lesson 2: Volume, Open Interest, and Depth The activity metrics that tell you how much to trust a price.
- Lesson 3: Spotting Mispricings How to recognize when a market price has drifted from a defensible estimate.
- Lesson 4: News, Narratives, and Noise Separating information that should move a price from noise that should not.
Module 5
Basic Strategy
- Lesson 1: Position Sizing and Bankroll How much to stake on any one market, and why bankroll discipline comes first.
- Lesson 2: Edge, Expected Value, and Kelly The math of a good bet: expected value and the Kelly criterion, in plain terms.
- Lesson 3: Managing Risk Diversification, correlation, and avoiding ruin in prediction-market portfolios.
- Lesson 4: Common Mistakes The recurring errors that cost new traders money — and how to avoid them.
Module 6
Advanced Concepts
- Lesson 1: Arbitrage Across Markets Exploiting price differences between venues and related contracts.
- Lesson 2: Calibration and Forecasting Skill Measuring whether your probabilities are actually any good.
- Lesson 3: Market Manipulation and Its Limits How manipulation works, why it is hard to sustain, and what to watch for.
- Lesson 4: Building a Forecasting Process Turning everything in this course into a repeatable personal workflow.